Rush to acclaim City Of Troy ignores history of exciting two-year-olds failing to live up to billing

Even by the giddiest standards, the excitement starting to swirl around Aidan O’Brien’s newest two-year-old star City Of Troy is dizzying.

The son of unbeaten US Triple Crown winner Justify, and the Group One winning Galileo mare Together Forever, is already a general 3-1 favourite for next year’s 2,000 Guineas and just a digit longer for the Derby.

It’s on the back of a scintillating success in Saturday’s Superlative Stakes at Newmarket that made the race-title entirely apt.

City Of Troy destroyed his opposition to the tune of six and a half lengths, leaving onlookers both gasping and grasping for comparisons to some of the best horses O’Brien has had through his hands.

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In the rush to acclaim, a blind eye appeared to be turned towards vast evidence of how premature – and expensive – it can be to get carried away on the back of a single performance by a callow juvenile.

Ryan Moore had barely pulled City Of Troy up at Newmarket before the bandwagon surrounding Ballydoyle’s latest next big thing hit full steam.

Admittedly the colt’s performance was faultless, cruising into the lead before a startling burst of acceleration when Moore delivered a single strike of the whip.

“He looks an incredibly special horse,” said O’Brien who admitted pondering whether to give the horse a second career start on rain-softened ground.

“The Futurity, the National Stakes, the Dewhurst, all those sort of races, are open to him now. Obviously, as you can see, he has loads of speed, so a mile should be no problem to him. The way he cruises, and with his action and everything.

“We know about Justifys, they are all Classic-bred horses. It is very exciting, really,” added the Irishman.

If sceptics noted the hard-sell of Justify, whose fee in Kentucky dropped to $100,000 this year, and whose best progeny before now included the admirable, if hardly outstanding, Aspen Grove, then such promotional instincts are hardly exclusive to Coolmore.

Indeed, further evidence on Sunday of how Justify’s fee might get rebooted in 2024 came when his daughter, the French-trained Ramatuelle, ran away with the Group Two Prix Robert Papin at Chantilly. O’Brien’s His Majesty had the thankless task of chasing her home.

Nevertheless, the dangers of going all in, including emotionally, on a brilliant two-year-old came at Newmarket just over an hour after City Of Troy’s display.

Little Big Bear, Europe’s champion juvenile of 2022 after a superb Phoenix Stakes performance, was an all but pulled up last in the July Cup behind Shaquille.

From having the world at his feet, the colt looks a busted flush at the top level after one win from four starts this season.

It should be a salutary reminder of the odds against any brilliantly precocious youngster maturing into a Classic great a year later.

It’s only four years since Pinatubo trumped Frankel’s two-year-old rating with a heady 128 pulled off through a spectacular National Stakes rout at the Curragh. He won once from four starts a year later.

Too Darn Hot was another precocious two-year-old star that wound up landing a pair of Group Ones at three and yet was ultimately rated considerably lower than as a juvenile.

O’Brien’s record-breaking career contains a sprinkling of brilliant-looking prospects that ultimately failed to deliver.

Injury prevented St Nicholas Abbey fulfilling his Classic potential while it is probably a case of the less said the better about names such as Air Force Blue and One Cool Cat.

It’s also worth pointing out how O’Brien’s triple Group One winner Paddington started this season unheralded and running in a handicap off 97.

But as of now there’s no quibbling with City Of Troy’s status as a hugely promising contender for this season’s top juvenile contests and a prime Classic hope even at this early stage for 2024.

It is 44 years since the Willie Carson ridden Troy ran out a brilliant seven-length Derby winner at Epsom.

A decent but hardly outstanding two-year-old, Troy proceeded at Epsom to have a superb three-year-old campaign that earned him European championship honours.

If it’s a reminder of how time changes things, it’s one that racing’s excitable instinct for quickly acclaiming the potential next big thing will probably supersede.